Sunday, 1 June 2025

2025 U.S. World Trials Previews: Cavaliers Reign Supreme In The Women’s 200 Breaststroke | SwimSwam

By Sean Griffin on SwimSwam

2025 U.S. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS

WOMEN’S 200 BREASTSTROKE — BY THE NUMBERS:

We’re less than a week out from the marquee domestic event of the year, as the American team for the 2025 World Championships in Singapore will be determined in a few days’ time at the U.S. National Championships in Indiana.

Up in the final week of our preview schedule is the women’s 200 breaststroke—strong at the top with two active swimmers under 2:20 and another in the low-2:22 range, but definitely one of the weaker events in terms of depth.

Kate Douglass (Photo Credit: Jack Spitser)

THE CLEAR FAVORITE

The reigning Olympic champion and current American record holder Kate Douglass is the clear favorite to win the 200 breast at the Trials—hands down.

Those two titles alone could be enough for us to slot her into the #1 spot and move straight on to the other contenders, but we’re not going to do that.

Let’s start from the beginning of Douglass’ journey in this event. When she made her first senior international team at the 2020 (held in 2021) U.S. Olympic Trials, she qualified in the 200 IM and went on to earn individual bronze at the Tokyo Olympics. Notably, she didn’t even swim the 200 breast at those Trials—yet three years later, she not only won the event at the next Olympic Trials but also straight-up captured Olympic gold.

Douglass first made waves in the long course 200 breast at the 2022 U.S. World Championship Trials, where she placed 2nd behind Lilly King (whom we’ll discuss in detail later), logging a massive personal best of 2:21.43 to obliterate her previous mark of 2:24.40 set in prelims at the same meet. At the World Championships, she added time—the only meet where she has significantly added from Trials—but managed to post a 2:23.20 to earn bronze.

In 2023, the story was much the same at Trials: she finished 2nd behind King again, this time notching a lifetime best of 2:21.22. She then upgraded from world bronze to silver, touching just behind the reigning Olympic champion Tatjana Smith (née Schoenmaker) in a near-identical 2:21.23—this on the back end of a double with the 100 free about 45 minutes earlier, where she finished 4th, just a tenth shy of the podium.

Fast forward to 2024: Douglass really took off. She kicked off her year at the Pro Swim Series stop in Knoxville with a shiny new American record of 2:19.30, taking down Rebecca Soni’s legendary 2012 mark of 2:19.59—set when Soni won Olympic gold in London and became the first woman to break the 2:20 barrier. Douglass went on to win silver at the 2024 World Championships in Doha, clocking a 2:20.91—again on the backend of the 100 free double—where she placed 4th, just two tenths off the podium.

After Doha, she took a two-month break from competition to reset and get in a solid training block. She returned at the San Antonio Pro Swim Series stop in mid-April, breaking 2:20 again with a 2:19.89, then repeated the feat with a 2:19.95 at the end of May. At the Olympic Trials, she posted a 2:19.66 in prelims before winning the final in 2:19.46—marking five swims under 2:20 in just six months. For perspective, only two other American women—Soni and King—have ever broken 2:20, and each have done so just once.

At the Games, all eyes were on the highly anticipated showdown between Douglass and the aforementioned Smith, who entered as the slight favorite after a 2:19.01 performance at the South African Olympic Trials in April—just 0.06 off her personal best and former world record of 2:18.95 from Tokyo. The two met in the same semifinal, where Douglass posted a 2:19.74 to Smith’s 2:19.94, before claiming gold in the final with another new American record of 2:19.24. Smith took silver in 2:19.60, after earlier upgrading her Tokyo silver to gold in the 100 breast.

This season, Douglass has yet to crack 2:20, with a season-best of 2:20.78 from the Pro Swim Series stop in Fort Lauderdale last month. However, her schedule has looked a bit different post-Olympics, as she focused on the World Short Course Championships and the World Cup circuit from October through December—where she broke the short course meters 200 breast world record three times—likely followed by a well-earned break. Even so, her season-best time should easily top the field at Trials. And given she’s only swum the event at two meets so far this season, don’t be surprised to see her drop several tenths and challenge the 2:20 barrier for the eighth time in her career.

Douglass’ Sub-2:20 Outings In The LCM 200 Breaststroke:

Time Meet Month Year
2:19.24 Olympic Games July 2024
2:19.30 TYR Pro Swim Series – Knoxville January 2024
2:19.46 US Olympic Team Trials (Heat) June 2024
2:19.66 US Olympic Team Trials (Final) June 2024
2:19.74 Olympic Games July 2024
2:19.89 TYR Pro Swim Series – San Antonio April 2024
2:19.95 PV NCAP Elite Qualifier June 2024

WHAT ABOUT KING?

Lilly King (Photo Credit: Jack Spitser)

100 breaststroke world record holder Lilly King has represented Team USA in the 200 breast at every major long course international competition since 2016. On legacy alone, you’d expect her to remain a lock for a Worlds spot—she’s the third-fastest American of all time (2:19.92), and the 2022 World champion in the event. But this year marks a turning point: she is not entered in the event at Trials, officially ending that streak.

Outside of Douglass, no American has been within a second of King’s winning time of 2:20.95 from the 2023 U.S. World Trials. But since then, she has looked less consistent at this distance. She clocked 2:22.25 at 2023 Worlds and missed the podium, then notched 2:21.93 at the 2024 Olympic Trials to qualify for Paris—before ultimately finishing 8th in the final with a 2:25.91.

The clearest signal of her pivot away from the event came after Paris. She passed on the event at the 2024 World Short Course Championships despite being prequalified, opting instead to focus on the 50 and 100.

That choice fits a broader pattern. Her recent meet schedule makes it increasingly clear that she is zeroing in on the sprint breaststrokes, in what will be the final chapter of her career. This was confirmed yesterday when she announced she’ll retire from the sport at the end of this summer—meaning this meet, or Worlds if she qualifies, will be her last.

ANY FRONTRUNNERS FOR 2ND?

Alex Walsh (Photo Credit: Jack Spitser)

There’s a simple answer to the question of who could take the second U.S. spot in the 200 breast—especially with King likely focusing on the shorter distances: Alex Walsh.

The 23-year-old versatile ace hasn’t swum the 200 breast on the long course international stage, having narrowly missed the U.S. Olympic team in the event last summer. She placed 3rd at the 2024 Trials with her current personal best of 2:22.38, finishing behind King. But with King potentially skipping the event this summer, Walsh emerges as the clear frontrunner for the second slot behind Douglass.

Walsh is best known for her prowess in the 200 IM, where she’s established herself as one of the world’s premier athletes. She won silver in the event at the 2023 Worlds, and captured gold in 2022. In Paris, she initially touched 3rd in the final before being disqualified for an illegal back-to-breast turn.

After undergoing a meniscus procedure post-Olympics, Walsh took a four-month break from competition before returning in December at the 2024 World Short Course Championships in Budapest. There, she reminded everyone of her elite level, winning silver in the 200 IM (2:02.65), bronze in the 200 breast (2:16.83), and leading off the world record-breaking 4×200 freestyle relay.

Having permanently moved on from the 400 IM—where she finished 4th at the 2023 Worlds—Walsh appears to be positioning the 200 breast as her second primary event alongside the 200 IM. So far this season, she’s posted a time of 2:22.91—right on track with the 2:22.89 she swam around this point last year before dropping her PB at Trials. With the 200 breast likely being her first swim of this summer’s Trials (compared to being her second of three events last year), it’s reasonable to think she could break the 2:22 barrier.

With South Africa’s Smith now retired and 2024 world champion and Paris Olympic bronze medalist Tes Schouten of the Netherlands taking the season off to focus on her health, Walsh could emerge as a legitimate medal contender for Worlds—if she qualifies. World record holder Evgeniia Chikunova, who will compete on the long course international stage for the first time since the Tokyo Games, and Douglass project as the favorites for gold and silver — but Walsh could be right in the thick of the bronze medal battle. Her biggest rival, at the moment, appears to be Great Britain’s Angharad Evans, who just posted a 2:21.86 at British Trials—a swim right around what Walsh appears to be capable of. 

COULD THE NCAA CHAMPION BE A TOP CONTENDER?

Lucy Bell (Photo Credit: Jack Spitser)

Before Stanford’s tri-meet against ASU and Cal in November, Stanford junior Lucy Bell hadn’t swum a 200 breast—short course or long course—since 2022. But when she finally returned to the event, she made an immediate splash, posting a yards lifetime best of 2:06.32 and hasn’t looked back since. She garnered three more personal bests as the season went on, ultimately clocking a 2:04.60 for silver at the ACC Championships before dropping again to 2:04.38 to win gold at NCAAs.

In total, Bell has dropped 9.2 seconds in her 200-yard breast this season. Her long course career best stood at 2:33.00 before this past weekend, where she lowered it to 2:30.70 in prelims at the Sun Devil Open, then logged another three-second drop in the final to win in 2:27.72. A drop of even one or two more seconds at Nationals could land her squarely in the upper tier of the ‘A’ final.

At the 2024 U.S. Olympic Trials, Bell didn’t contest the 200 breast, instead sticking to her established IM/fly schedule. She made finals in three events:

  • 200 Fly – 8th in the final (2:10.58) after crushing a personal best of 2:08.90 in the semis.
  • 200 IM – 8th in the final (2:13.67) after clocking a best time of 2:12.23 in the semis, then dropping to 2:12.00 at the Sun Devil meet last weekend.
  • 400 IM – 6th in the final, recording a new career best of 4:41.40.

Her IM and fly credentials are still strong, but given how explosive her return to the 200 breast has been in short course, her best shot for an international team berth looks to be here. 

AGE GROUP STARS

Despite this event lacking in depth, there’s a promising wave of young age group swimmers emerging—an encouraging sign as we’re already a year into the 2028 Olympic cycle. Among the rising stars to watch are Addie Robillard, Mia Su, and Sarah Zhang.

Robillard, a Stanford commit and member of the Mason Manta Rays, enters with a personal best of 2:27.50 from the 2023 U.S. National Championships, though she hasn’t matched that mark in nearly two years. If the high school senior can dip back into the 2:27–2:28 range, she’s almost a lock to make the ‘A’ final this year. She posted a 2:29.73 at an in-season meet in Indianapolis this March—a significant improvement from the 2:32.16 she swam at the same point last year—indicating strong progression heading into Nationals. Robillard also earned bronze at the Junior Pan Pac Championships last August with a 2:30.20 and notched her 2024 season best of 2:28.45 during prelims at that same meet.

15-year-old Zhang of Revolution Aquatic Club made a major statement at the Fort Lauderdale Pro Swim Series last month, clocking a new lifetime best of 2:29.51. That swim followed her previous best of 2:33.01 from prelims, which itself was a substantial drop from her 2:36.22 at the Futures Championships in Huntsville last July. Her trajectory has been steep, and even a slight drop from her latest mark could safely land her in the top 8.

Santa Clara Swim Club’s Su, 16, owns a personal best of 2:28.86 from last July’s Speedo Summer Championships. She’s been as fast as 2:33.42 so far this season but has recently been focused more on yards, including a runner-up finish in the 100-yard breast at the CIF High School State Championships in California. It may take her a bit more time to get back into long course rhythm, making a best time later in the summer more likely—so an ‘A’ final berth next week may be a stretch.

Also in the mix with sub-2:30 career bests are future Colorado State Ram Kayda Geyer (2:29.89) and USC verbal Kaitlyn Nguyen (2:29.77).

Geyer broke 2:30 for the first time at the Charlotte Open in mid-May and looks to be rounding into form at the right time. Nguyen owns a season best of 2:34.23, notched just two weeks ago.

Cal commit Elle Scott is another name to track with her 2:31.65 lifetime best, though she’s likely more of a contender in the shorter breaststroke distances.

OTHER NAMES TO KEEP AN EYE ON

  • Emma Weber — Olympic gold medalist and UVA swimmer Emma Weber is best known for her sprinting abilities, owning marks of 30.57 in the 50 breast and 1:06.10 in the 100. She rose to prominence with a surprise runner-up finish in the 100 at the U.S. Olympic Trials last June, later ranking 23rd in Paris with a 1:07.65. While she does own a lifetime best of 2:27.08 in the 200 breast from the 2023 U.S. National Championships, she was only 11th at Trials last summer with a 2:29.29—clear evidence of a shift in focus toward the shorter distances. With the 200 breast scheduled before her two stronger events, she finds herself in a similar position to Dobler. Does she swim it, knowing how difficult it will be to secure a top-2 finish, or does she conserve energy to maximize her shot at making the Worlds team in the 50 and 100? For what it’s worth, she owns a season-best of 2:30.13 in the 200 breast from the Fort Lauderdale Pro Series earlier this month, where she touched 1st in the 100 breast (1:06.63) and nabbed a runner-up finish in the 50 with her aforementioned PB.
  • Leah Hayes — UVA freshman and IM specialist Leah Hayes broke onto the scene in 2022 when she won bronze in the 200 IM at the World Championships behind Walsh, but she hasn’t come close to matching that best time since. She has since focused more on the 400 IM, where she’s dropped several seconds and is now in strong contention to make the Worlds team. Recently, she has also renewed her focus on the 200 breast, a stroke she excelled in during her age-group days. This year, she has posted a best time of 2:27.60 in Fort Lauderdale, which is almost certainly ‘A’ final-worthy, and anything faster should see her finish in the upper end of the field.
  • Isabelle Odgers — Former USC Trojan Isabelle Odgers owns a lifetime best of 2:26.59 in this event, set in May of last year. She went on to finish 7th at the Olympic Trials with a much slower 2:30.07. If she’s anywhere near her PB—or even splits the difference—she’ll likely secure a lane in the championship final. She owns a season-best of 2:28.89 from the Sacramento Pro Swim Series stop in early April.
  • Piper Enge — Coming off an impressive NCAA season, Piper Enge finished 5th in the 100 breast and 32nd in the 200 breast at NCAAs, having thrown down multiple personal bests throughout the season leading up to the meet. Their season-best in the LCM 200 breast stands at a 2:31.89 from May, while their lifetime best remains 2:27.86 from June 2023. Matching that lifetime best should be enough to earn them a spot in the ‘A’ final, though they’ve become better known for their sprinting prowess over the past two seasons.

SWIMSWAM’S PICKS

PLACE SWIMMER SEASON BEST
LIFETIME BEST
1 Kate Douglass 2:20.78 2:19.24
2 Alex Walsh 2:22.91 2:22.38
3 Lucy Bell 2:27.72 2:27.72
4 Leah Hayes 2:27.60 2:27.60
5 Isabelle Odgers 2:28.89 2:26.59
6 Addie Robillard 2:29.73 2:27.50
7 Sarah Zhang 2:29.51 2:29.51
8 Kayda Geyer 2:29.89 2:29.89

Dark Horse: Gabby Rose — One of the standout stories from last summer’s Olympic Trials was 47-year-old Gabby Rose. A two-time Olympian—representing Brazil in 1996 and the U.S. in 2000—Rose was once a world-class butterflier, freestyler, and IM’er, with multiple medals from Worlds, Pan Pacs, and Short Course Worlds. At Trials, she made a remarkable comeback, finishing 10th in the 100 breast semifinals with a time of 1:08.32 and 16th in the 200 breast semifinals (2:30.44). If she can chop a bit off her 200 PB from last summer (2:30.14), she could be on the bubble for making the ‘A’ final. With a season-best of 2:32.22 already this year, a sub-2:30 swim is within reach with a successful taper.

Read the full story on SwimSwam: 2025 U.S. World Trials Previews: Cavaliers Reign Supreme In The Women’s 200 Breaststroke

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