This article originally appeared in the 2024 Olympic Preview edition of SwimSwam Magazine, courtesy of author James Sutherland. Subscribe to the SwimSwam Magazine here.
There isn’t one race at the Paris Olympics that we recommend you don’t tune in for. But with that being said, some will be better than others. Both from a competitive aspect and the storylines coming into the Games, there are events that jump off the page, that you’ll make sure you’re locked in to catch live, and others that blend into the session.
Below, find our rankings of all 28 individual events for the Paris Olympics, from must-see to possibly uneventful.
Note that this article was written prior to some major national Olympic Trials meets, including Australia and the United States.
1. Women’s 200 IM
The women’s 200 IM projects to be a historic race. It features the last two world champions, Kate Douglass and Alex Walsh, and the only two women who have gone 2:06 in the last eight years, Summer McIntosh and Kaylee McKeown. These four swimmers all have different strengths. McKeown is the world’s best backstroker, Douglass could win gold in the 200 breast, and McIntosh previously held the world record in the 400 free and is the world champion in the 200 fly. Walsh is a pure medley specialist, though she has set records in breast and fly in the NCAA. We also can’t forget about China’s Yu Yiting, the 18-year-old who has won bronze at the last two World Championships and went 2:07.7 last year at the Asian Games.
2. Men’s 100 Free
The highly anticipated showdown between David Popovici and Caeleb Dressel didn’t happen at the 2022 World Championships. In 2023, when Dressel didn’t make the U.S. team after his extended hiatus, Popovici was well off his world-record breaking form and Kyle Chalmers stormed to gold in Fukuoka. If the stars align, the three juggernauts will finally face off in Paris, and the kicker is that the favorite might come from outside of that trio. Chinese teenager Pan Zhanle has been a wrecking ball over the last 12 months, breaking Popovici’s world record in 46.80 and adding two more swims under 47 seconds, giving him more than anyone else in history.
3. Women’s 200 Free
Not unlike the 200 IM, the women’s 200 free brings some of the fastest women in history together for what should be an incredible race. Ariarne Titmus will be out to defend her Olympic title, but she’ll have to fend off her Australian teammate Mollie O’Callaghan, who asserted herself as the gold medal favorite after breaking Federica Pellegrini‘s super-suited world record last year in 1:52.85. Titmus, Summer McIntosh and Siobhan Haughey were all 1:53 in the 2023 Worlds final behind O’Callaghan, and they’ll go to battle once again with Olympic medals at stake.
4. Women’s 100 Fly
The women’s 100 fly in Tokyo was exhilarating, as Maggie MacNeil sniped gold while Zhang Yufei, Emma McKeon and Torri Huske all delivered some of the fastest swims ever. Just 14 one-hundredths separated gold from fourth, and a similar situation could unfold in Paris. Zhang won the 2023 world title, Huske won in 2022 and has been on fire early in the Olympic season, and MacNeil is always clutch when it matters. Gretchen Walsh swam a time no one thought possible in short course yards, and her speed could shake things up if she makes her way through the U.S. Trials.
5. Women’s 200 Back
The rivalry between Kaylee McKeown and Regan Smith has been pretty one-sided in major competition, with Smith’s lone head-to-head win at a World Championship-level meet coming in 2019. The two have been trading near world record swims in both backstroke events over the last three years, and if you had to place a bet on which will be closer in Paris, it’s the 200. This might come as a surprise, especially after Smith failed to qualify for the U.S. team at both the Tokyo Olympics and the 2022 World Championships in the event, but things have changed since she aligned with coach Bob Bowman. Of the seven swims in history under 2:04, Smith owns four of them compared to McKeown’s three. The numbers tell us Smith is more competitive with McKeown in the 200, and if her mindset matches her physical ability, Smith will be right there with McKeown, with both potentially under the world record.
6. Men’s 100 Breast
For such a short race, the men’s 100 breast has been a one-sided affair at major international meets for the better part of the last decade. Adam Peaty’s dominance from 2015 to 2021 was followed by Qin Haiyang‘s tour de force in 2023, when the Chinese swimmer swept the breast events at the World Championships including a win in the 100 by more than a second. With Peaty coming back into form in time for Paris, breaking 58 seconds in the event for the first time since Tokyo in April, the showdown between the two could be the race of the meet. Peaty is going for his third straight Olympic gold medal after a hellacious few years outside of the pool, while Qin is trying to back up his mind-boggling 2023 on the sport’s biggest stage. The pre-race staredown alone makes this must-see.
7. Women’s 400 Free
The most highly anticipated race of the 2023 World Championships, Ariarne Titmus ended up dominating the women’s 400 free in Fukuoka, setting a new world record to boot. Katie Ledecky was more than three seconds back for silver, while Summer McIntosh, who broke the world record earlier in the year, missed the podium. In Paris, Titmus will be tough to beat after what she did last year, but we know McIntosh will be out for redemption and Ledecky can never be counted out. New Zealand’s Erika Fairweather, who grabbed bronze from McIntosh last year, has now been under 4:00 multiple times and will be in the mix.
8. Women’s 100 Back
The 100 back is a similar story to the 200 between McKeown and Smith, just with a bigger edge to McKeown. The Australian broke Smith’s world record in 2021, reset it last year on the World Cup circuit after winning the world title over Smith by a quarter of a second, and owns eight of the nine fastest swims ever. And despite Smith tying her fastest swim since 2019 in March (57.64), McKeown went quicker just nine days later (57.57). But this race is still short enough and both swimmers are so good that it’ll be close and one to circle on the calendar.
9. Men’s 200 Breast
Zac Stubblety-Cook‘s pursuit of a second straight Olympic gold looks a lot harder than it did 12 months ago. The Australian was the best 200 breaststroker in the world by a wide margin, but at the 2023 World Championships, had his lunch handed to him by Qin Haiyang, who followed up his massive wins in the 50 and 100 breast by breaking the world record in the 200 in a time of 2:05.48. Stubblety-Cook is the only other swimmer in history under 2:06, having gone 2:05.95 in 2022, and he’ll be chomping at the bit to get another crack at Qin, who has been far more consistent in the 100 breast which makes this even more interesting. Adding to the intrigue is the presence of France’s Leon Marchand, who sat out of the event in 2023 after swimming a time of 2:06.59 at the French Trials—a swim that came at a meet where he was well off in his other races. The Paris 2024 Organizers made a slight schedule change so the men’s 200 fly and 200 breast won’t be back-to-back, allowing Marchand to do both, which caused a stir amongst swimming fans. But having this three-way battle on tap should make up for it.
10. Men’s 100 Fly
Three months out of the Games, no one knows what’s coming in the men’s 100 fly. It could be the Caeleb Dressel show, picking up where he left off after being unbeatable in the event from 2017 to 2021. We could see Kristof Milak follow up on his 2022 world title and the swim he had in Tokyo where he gave Dressel a scare and make it look easy. We could see a similar scenario to the 2023 World Championships, when Dressel and Milak were both absent and Maxime Grousset, Josh Liendo and Dare Rose occupied the podium. The most likely scenario is it’s somewhere in between, with all five swimmers in the mix and a possible rematch between Dressel and Milak with the others right there. Noe Ponti, the Tokyo bronze medalist, has kicked it into high gear through the early stages of 2024 and is poised to challenge for another podium appearance.
11. Men’s 200 Fly
This is another race where Milak’s form will determine what transpires. At his best, the Hungarian is unbeatable, but he hasn’t been there in two years. If he’s even marginally off his world-record-breaking 2022 form, Leon Marchand and Tomoru Honda, and maybe even rising stars Ilya Kharun and Thomas Heilman, will give him a challenge.
12. Men’s 800 Free
All of the men’s freestyle events will garner plenty of intrigue in Paris, but among the three ‘distance’ races, the 800 free tops the charts. It brings the 400-meter favorites, such as Sam Short and Lukas Martens, and the top guns in the mile like Bobby Finke, Daniel Wiffen, Gregorio Paltrinieri, Mykhailo Romanchuk and Florian Wellbrock, together. That’s without mentioning the reigning world champion, Ahmed Hafnaoui, who is the best swimmer on earth across all three distances. At the 2023 World Championships, Hafnaoui won a nailbiter over Short, with Finke, Wiffen and Martens all within two and a half seconds of gold. A similar situation should unfold in Paris, just potentially with more names in the mix.
13. Women’s 200 Fly
The women’s 200 fly will feature the only two women in history under 2:04 in a textile suit, Zhang Yufei and Regan Smith, and the two-time world champion, Summer McIntosh. After Zhang won Olympic gold relatively comfortably in 2021, McIntosh did the same at the 2022 and 2023 World Championships. In between McIntosh’s world titles, Smith went 2:03.87 at an in-season meet in Arizona, just .01 slower than Zhang’s textile world record. McIntosh’s best time sits at 2:04.06. If they all show up at their best, this could be an exciting three-way battle that comes down to the wire.
14. Men’s 200 Free
At any given meet, the men’s 200 free usually ends up being one of the best races. There’s always lead changes, as sometimes swimmers go out too hard and pay for it late, and that oftens leads to things coming down to the finish. It happened in Tokyo, when four one-hundredths of a second separated gold from silver, and at the 2023 World Championships, the entire podium was within 12 one-hundredths. Matt Richards won the world title in Fukuoka over reigning Olympic champion and British teammate Tom Dean, who won’t get the opportunity to defend in Paris after he was third at the British Trials behind Richards and Duncan Scott. David Popovici became the first swimmer to break 1:43 in a textile suit in 2022, but missed the medals at the 2023 Worlds. There’s also South Korea’s Hwang Sunwoo, who took the Olympic final by storm in Tokyo before fading late. Hwang has evolved his race strategy and won three straight World Championship medals in the event, including gold in Doha. Unless Popovici is at his peak, this will be a barn burner coming down the stretch.
15. Men’s 400 Free
The men’s 400 free was projected to mirror what we saw at the 2023 World Championships, a tantalizing showdown between Ahmed Hafnaoui and Sam Short that resulted in Short winning gold by two one-hundredths. In late April, Lukas Martens threw a wrench into things when he swam a time of 3:40.33 at the German Championships, the fastest since Sun Yang in 2012. Martens set his previous best time outside of a major competition as well, so there’s no guarantee he’ll perform when the pressure’s on. But we now have three active swimmers under 3:41, and heading into the 2023 Worlds there was none. It feels like Paris is the finally the time for someone to break 3:40. The question is, who?
16. Women’s 100 Free
The women’s 100 free took a hit when world record holder Sarah Sjostrom declared she would not race the event in Paris. Despite her absence, this one promises to be exciting with Tokyo silver medalist Siobhan Haughey and two-time world champion Mollie O’Callaghan both clocking 52.0 in 2023. The Netherlands’ Marrit Steenbergen won the 2024 world title in 52.26, making her a real threat, and whoever joins O’Callaghan as the second Australian representative—O’Callaghan is also not a lock—will be in the running as well. That could be defending Olympic champion Emma McKeon, 400 free relay stalwarts Shayna Jack and Meg Harris, or maybe even veteran Cate Campbell.
17. Men’s 1500 Free
The 1500 free marks the rematch between Ahmed Hafnaoui and Bobby Finke after they went toe to toe at the 2023 World Championships, finishing just five one-hundredths apart in two of the three fastest swims ever. Sun Yang‘s longstanding world record of 14:31.02 is at risk, and there’s no certainty that it will be another two-man duel. Sam Short led the race early in Fukuoka before falling off the pace for bronze, Daniel Wiffen broke a historic world record held by Grant Hackett in short course last year, and the previous regime, led by Rio champion Gregorio Paltrinieri, won’t go down quietly. Florian Wellbrock has been a tad inconsistent recently but has the chops to win, too.
18. Women’s 200 Breast
With Russia’s Evgeniia Chikunova not in the field, the women’s 200 breast lost some luster, as defending champion Tatjana Smith (nee Schoenmaker) looked like she might be head and shoulders above the rest of the competition. That was until Kate Douglass and Tes Schouten joined the exclusive sub-2:20 club in early 2024, making them both contenders for gold. Lilly King won silver in Tokyo in her lone swim in the 2:19s, so she’ll be factor as well.
19. Men’s 200 IM
This might just be the Leon Marchand show, but unlike the 400 IM, the Frenchman could have a real battle on his hands even if he’s operating at full force. Marchand joined Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps in the sub-1:55 club at the 2023 World Championships, but not too long after, China’s Wang Shun, the defending Olympic champion, one-upped him. Wang went two-tenths faster than Marchand in 1:54.62 at the Asian Games, setting up a marquee clash in front of the French fans with all eyes on Marchand.
20. Women’s 100 Breast
It would be quite a story if Ruta Meilutyte manages to find her way back to the top of the Olympic podium in Paris. The Lithuanian orchestrated a massive upset to win the women’s 100 breast at the London Olympics at the age of 15, and has taken a winding road in the 12 years since. After a brief break from swimming, she’s returned to the top of the sport’s elite over the last two years and is the woman to beat as it stands after winning the 2023 world title by well over a second. She was off form at the 2024 Worlds, however, and upsets do happen as we saw in 2021 with American teenager Lydia Jacoby stealing gold. Jacoby, 2016 champion Lilly King and South Africa’s Tatjana Smith (Schoenmaker) have all been 1:04 before and will give Meilutyte a real race.
21. Men’s 50 Free
There’s no clear indication of what’s to come in the men’s 50 free, as both Caeleb Dressel and Cameron McEvoy might just be unbeatable if they’re at their best—if both on career-best form, this will be close. Ben Proud has won everything there is to win in the event outside of an Olympic medal, and he’s shown he’s capable of being fast enough for gold. And then there’s the Florent Manaudou story. The 33-year-old will be seeking his fourth straight Olympic medal in the event in front of his home crowd, and another trip to the podium would be a fitting way to end his career a dozen years after his stunning win in London.
22. Women’s 800 Free
We’re not expecting to see Summer McIntosh in this race as it coincides with the 200 IM in Paris. If McIntosh was slated to join the 800 free lineup in Paris, the event would shoot up the rankings after the Canadian handed Katie Ledecky her first loss in the event in more than 13 years in early 2024. But unless were treated to that surprise, this is Ledecky’s race to lose. She owns the 16 fastest swims ever, and 29 of the top 30, with the other belonging to McIntosh. That might make this race more or less a snoozer, but the 800 free also represents Ledecky’s chance to win the same event for a fourth straight time, something only Michael Phelps has done, making this an event many will be looking forward to.
23. Men’s 400 IM
There’s an argument this race could be placed right at the top. It would have been an even bigger spectacle if the men’s 400 IM final wasn’t shifted from the first night of finals to the second in Paris, but nonetheless, the French frenzy will have all eyes on Leon Marchand, making it a must-see race. Marchand broke Michael Phelps‘ historic world record from 2008 at the 2023 World Championships in 4:02.50, and it will take a disqualification for anything to stop him from claiming the Olympic title. It also might be the first French gold of the Games. Marchand’s first medal opportunity makes this a great race. We might see some battles for the minor medals, but this is the Marchand show.
24. Women’s 400 IM
Similar to the men’s race, the women’s 400 IM will most likely be a one-sided affair, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be enticing. Summer McIntosh‘s world record swim in the event last year reverberated around the swimming verse, as no one predicted Katinka Hosszu’s mark of 4:26.36 from 2016 would go down anytime soon. But McIntosh did it in a time of 4:25.87 at the Canadian World Trials in 2023, and went on to defend her world title by more than four seconds in Fukuoka. The race will come on the third night of action in Paris, early on in McIntosh’s hectic Olympic schedule compared to it being at the tail-end of the 2023 Worlds. Given that she was just over a second shy of her world record there, it could very well go down again in Paris.
25. Men’s 100 Back
The men’s 100 back is a race that’s hard to read a few months out of the Games, as Italian Thomas Ceccon and China’s Xu Jiayu have both shown flashes of brilliance in the past, but haven’t been the most consistent performers. American Ryan Murphy has been nothing but consistent, and after he was the bronze medalist in Tokyo behind Russians Evgeny Rylov and Kliment Kolesnikov—who won’t be in Paris—he’s in position to reclaim the title he won in Rio. The other American who is likely to qualify, Hunter Armstrong, is dangerous with a sub-52 swim under his belt as well, and there’s a world where this is a wild four-way fight for the podium. It could also end up being ho-hum with 52.2 winning gold.
26. Men’s 200 Back
Ryan Murphy coasted to the world title in 2022, but he was upended by Hungary’s Hubert Kos last year in the men’s 200 back, as Kos pulled away from Murphy down the stretch in the Fukuoka final for a decisive gold. The two men could have an exciting head-to-head race in Paris, but we’ve seen Murphy in the 1:54s for a long time. Kos on the other hand just broke into the 1:54s and is on an upward trajectory. He broke Murphy’s NCAA Record in short course yards earlier this year, and it’s not out of the question he’ll run away with this race at the Olympics.
27. Women’s 50 Free
It’s rare to have such a decisive favorite in the shortest event on the schedule, but that’s what we’ve got with the women’s 50 free. Since transitioning her focus from the 100 fly to the 50 free, Sarah Sjostrom has been unstoppable in the splash n’ dash. She won silver in Tokyo to put a bow on her quick return from elbow surgery, and has followed up by winning three straight world titles while breaking her own world record from 2017. No one else did it last year, but in early 2024, Kate Douglass and Kasia Wasick joined Sjostrom under the 24-second threshold, adding a bit of intrigue to an event that Sjostrom projects to dominate. A fully on-form Emma McKeon, the defending champion, looks like Sjostrom’s only real threat.
28. Women’s 1500 Free
This is the Katie Ledecky show, no questions asked. If you like seeing one of the greatest swimmers in history add to their medal tally, this is one you won’t want to miss. But from a purely racing perspective, this won’t be particularly interesting as Ledecky will win going away.
Read the full story on SwimSwam: Races To Watch: Ranking The 2024 Paris Olympic Swimming Events
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