Online Sportsbooks Show Kaylee McKeown as Big Olympic Favorite in the Women’s 200 Back | SwimSwam

By Braden Keith on SwimSwam

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Online sportsbooks around the world have begun posting odds for Olympic swimming, and while most of those odds align with those of the average swimming fan, one has stood out among them as a potential value pick.

Australian Kaylee McKeown has been given -200 odds on several European sportsbooks to win the 200 backstroke, while American Regan Smith has been given +175 odds.

McKeown, the World Record holder, is the current World Record holder, and SwimSwam’s Anya Pelshaw agrees with the books that McKeown is the favorite, selecting the Aussie to win in the official preview.

But the scale of the gap has turned some heads, as this is expected to be one of the more exciting and competitive races on the Olympic schedule.

For those unfamiliar with sports betting, -200 odds means that if you wager $100 and McKeown wins, you get your $100 back plus another $50.

Professional gamblers don’t pick winners; professional gamblers look for “positive expected value,” which is bets where the probability of winning the bet is higher than the odds priced at the sportsbook.

The odds imply that you have to believe that there is a greater-than-two-thirds chance that McKeown wins. If you believe there is a two-thirds chance that she wins, then this would be a neutral expected value pick. You’re looking for positive expected values.

If Smith wins, however, you would receive your original $100 back plus an additional $175. Smith is also a previous World Record holder and her season-best is about seven-tenths behind McKeown’s, though Smith’s time wasn’t done at the US Olympic Trials.

If you think there is a better than 36% chance that Smith wins, then, you would see positive expected value in this pick.

The two are well ahead of the field. Kylie Masse of Canada to win would pay out 11 to 1, as would American Phoebe Bacon.

So again, while McKeown certainly feels like a favorite, Smith, who is swimming as well as she has since the 2019 World Championships where she set that 200 backstroke World Record, certainly feels like a positive expected value pick at 36%.

Full 200 Back Odds from one online Sportsbook based in the UK:

• Kaylee McKeown, Australia – 1/2
• Regan Smith, USA – 7/4
• Kylie Masse, Canada – 11/1
• Phoebe Bacon, USA – 11.1
• Jaclyn Barclay, Australia – 14/1
• Xuwei Peng, China – 20/1
• Liu Yaxin, China – 33/1
• Margherita Panziera, Italy – 33/1
• Honey Osrin, Great Britain – 40/1
• Katie Shanahan, Great Britain – 40/1
• Emma Terebo, France – 50/1
• Anastasia Gorbenko, Israel – 80/1
• Camila Rebelo, Portugal – 80/1
• Carmen Weiler Sastre, Spain – 80/1
• Dora Molnar, Hungary – 100/1
• Africa Zamorano, Spain – 125/1
• Laura Bernat, Poland – 125/1
• Regan Rathwell, Canada – 125/1
• Pauline Mahieu, France – 150/1
• Adela Piskorska, Poland – 200/1
• Aviv Barzelay, Israel – 200/1
• Eunji Lee, South Korea – 200/1

Reading the odds: how much you will win/how much you stake. Left column does not include returning the original stake if you win.

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