This article originally appeared in the 2024 Olympic Preview edition of SwimSwam Magazine, courtesy of author James Sutherland. Subscribe to the SwimSwam Magazine here.
Note that this article was written prior to some major national Olympic Trials meets, including Australia and the United States.
Men’s 1500 Free: 1-2 (66.6 percent)
The men’s 800 and 1500 freestyles in Tokyo were projected to be three-horse races between Europeans Gregorio Paltrinieri, Florian Wellbrock and Mykhailo Romanchuk. American Bobby Finke kicked down the door midway through the Games in the 800 free, upsetting the trio for gold. At the end of the meet in the 1500 free, Paltrinieri, Wellbrock and Romanchuk were well aware that Finke had the weapon of a blazing-fast closing 100, and still couldn’t do anything about it. Since Finke’s win in Tokyo (14:39.65), he claimed the world title in 2022 (14:36.70), and then had an epic duel with Ahmed Hafnaoui at the 2023 World Championships, placing a close second in 14:31.59, the #3 swim in history. Given Hafnaoui is a bit of a wildcard heading to Paris, Finke is the odds-on favorite to defend.
Men’s 200 Fly: 6-4 (60.0 percent)
Is the best 200 butterfly swimmer in the world back? Kristof Milak hasn’t raced at a major international meet since the calendar turned to 2023, as burnout led to him missing the World Championships in Fukuoka. Milak has been dominant in the 200 fly for more than five years and owns the eight fastest swims in history by someone not named Michael Phelps (eight of the top 12 including Phelps). There were more questions than answers surrounding Milak entering the Olympic year, but in early April he showed signs of a return to form, clocking 1:54.90 at Hungarian Nationals. For what it’s worth, he went 1:51.40 at the same meet in 2021, but regardless, his ability in the event still makes him a sizeable favorite for gold. His biggest challenger will be Leon Marchand, who won the 2023 world title in 1:52.43.
Men’s 100 Breast: 1-1 (50.0 percent)
The most dominant sprint breaststroker during the previous two Olympic cycles, Peaty has gone through a hellacious few years coming out of Tokyo. He questioned why he was doing the sport, having accomplished everything he set out to do after back-to-back Olympic golds and a 56.88 world record in the 100 breast. But after he wasn’t in the field at either the 2022 (foot fracture) or the 2023 (mental health) World Championships, Peaty is back. He won bronze at the 2024 Worlds in Doha, and then got back under 58 seconds for the first time since Tokyo at the British Championships (57.94). In Peaty’s absence, Qin Haiyang has emerged as the best male breaststroker in the world, going sub-58 six times in 2023. A motivated Peaty is a dangerous thing, however, and now that he seems to have everything back in line, a three-peat is within reach.
Men’s 400 Free: 5-4 (44.4 percent)
No one was a bigger upset winner in Tokyo than Hafnaoui, who squeaked into the final of the 400 free only to snag gold from Lane 8. He’s improved tenfold since then and is one of five men in history who have gone 3:40 in the event. At the 2023 World Championships, he was the runner-up to Australian Sam Short (3:40.68) by two one-hundredths, making this appear to be a 50-50 race heading to Paris. However, Hafnaoui has had a strange season, joining Indiana University, leaving to train in California, and then performing subpar at the 2024 Worlds. In addition to the presence of Short and the unknown about his form, Hafnaoui falls below 50 percent odds given that we almost always see someone come out of nowhere to challenge for gold — like he did three years ago.
Men’s 800 Free: 4-6 (40.0 percent)
Finke’s chances in the 800 free aren’t as high as in the mile mostly due to competition. He won bronze at the 2023 World Championships behind both Hafnaoui and Short, both of whom go 3:40 in the 400 free and thus have more high-end speed than Finke. The American is the most proven, consistent performer on the big stage among the three, however, so he still gets better than 33 percent odds.
Men’s 200 Breast: 8-5 (38.5 percent)
Stubblety-Cook was the world’s best 200 breaststroker, no questions asked, for two years. From 2021 to 2023, he went sub-2:07 five times, winning Olympic gold and the 2022 world title while becoming the first swimmer in history under 2:06 with a 2:05.95 world record. At the 2023 World Championships, however, Qin Haiyang emerged as a dominant force, soaring to gold in the 50 and 100 breast. Heading into the 200, Qin’s endurance was a bit of a question given what he did in the sprints, and not many gave him a chance to upend Stubblety-Cook. Until he did. The Australian’s usual back-end speed was matched by Qin, who was already well ahead, as the Chinese swimmer broke the world record in 2:05.48. Stubblety-Cook was well back in 2:06.40. He still has a good chance of winning, but he’s now the hunter and not the hunted.
Men’s 100 Fly: 7-4 (36.4 percent)
We’ve learned that Caeleb Dressel is unstoppable in the 100 fly when in peak form — he won back-to-back world titles in 2017 and 2019, and when faced with a stiff test from Kristof Milak in Tokyo, pulled out a new world record to secure Olympic gold. Dressel owns 12 of the 20 fastest swims of all time and seven of the top nine, but like Milak in the 200 fly, questions about his form abound as we descend into Paris. Dressel has reestablished himself as a gold medal contender after missing the 2023 World Championship team, firing off a time of 50.84 in April at the San Antonio Pro Swim. Going sub-51 in-season is a big positive, but there’s no shortage of competition — Maxime Grousset won the 2023 world title in 50.14, Noe Ponti blasted a time of 50.16 in April, and Milak is an ever-present threat at his best. With that, Dressel will need to be back in the 49s to win, one would think, and that’s no lock despite his pedigree.
Men’s 50 Free: 2-1 (33.3 percent)
Going back to Tokyo, Dressel was almost automatic in the 50 free. He won gold by nearly half a second and could seemingly post 21.0 swims at will while everyone else in the world struggled to break 21.5. Now, Dressel is not only working his way back into peak form, he also faces additional challengers who can go 21-low. Cameron McEvoy was just two one-hundredths slower than Dressel’s personal best last year in 21.06, and so far in 2024, McEvoy (21.13), Ben Proud (21.25) and Vladyslav Bukhov (21.38) have been under 21.5, while Dressel has only been 21.84.
Men’s 200 IM: 4-1 (20.0 percent)
Wang Shun has been up and down since winning the 200 IM in Tokyo. He was 15th at the 2022 World Championships, and then last year was disqualified in the prelims. But a few months after the 2023 Worlds in September, Wang went 1:54.62 at the Asian Games, joining Ryan Lochte, Michael Phelps, and Leon Marchand under the 1:55 barrier. Wang’s time was faster than what Marchand went to win the 2023 world title (1:54.82) but given his lack of consistency and Marchand’s constant improvement, it’s hard to give Wang much better than 4-1 odds.
Men’s 100 Free: 6-1 (14.3 percent)
At the peak of his powers, Dressel only narrowly edged out wins in the 100 free, and though he consistently got the job done at the 2017 and 2019 World Championships and the 2021 Olympics, he faces a much taller order in Paris. The first factor in this is if he even qualifies to swim it — the U.S. has gotten much deeper in the event since Tokyo, led by 2023 Worlds silver medalist Jack Alexy. If Dressel gets through the U.S. Trials gauntlet, he’ll have world record holder David Popovici and longtime rival and 2023 world champion Kyle Chalmers waiting for him. Dressel can still win, but his chances in the 50 free and 100 fly are much better.
Men’s 400 IM: 100-1 (1.0 percent)
These odds are not meant to be a slight to Kalisz — they’re merely acknowledging the sheer dominance Leon Marchand has displayed in the 400 IM over the last two years. Kalisz has been faster than his winning time from Tokyo in each of the last two years, but that still leaves him some five seconds back of Marchand. Even if Marchand were to be disqualified or have to withdraw for some reason, Kalisz would still be an underdog for gold.
Read the full story on SwimSwam: Olympic Odds To Defend: Looking To Paris – Men’s Edition
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