Thursday 6 June 2024

2024 Olympic Trials Previews: Regan Smith Surges Further Ahead of Crowded 100 Back Field | SwimSwam

By Laura Rosado on SwimSwam

2024 U.S. OLYMPIC TRIALS

WOMEN’S 100 BACKSTROKE – BY THE NUMBERS

  • World Record: 57.33, Kaylee McKeown (AUS) – 2023 World Cup – Budapest
  • American Record: 57.51, Regan Smith – 2024 NOVA Speedo Grand Challenge
  • U.S. Open Record: 57.51, Regan Smith – 2024 NOVA Speedo Grand Challenge
  • World Junior Record: 57.57, Regan Smith (USA) – 2019 World Championships
  • 2021 Olympic Champion: 57.47, Kaylee McKeown (AUS)
  • 2021 U.S. Olympic Trials Champion: 58.35, Regan Smith
  • 2024 U.S. Olympic Trials Cut: 1:01.89
  • 2024 Olympic Qualifying Time (‘A’ Cut): 59.99

The women’s 100 backstroke is one of the deepest events in the U.S. right now, with three swimmers ranked within the top eight in the world this season.

Regan Smith Stakes Her Claim with Newly-Minted American Record

Regan Smith has been a mainstay in this event since bursting onto the scene in world record fashion in 2019. Leading off the U.S.’s 400 medley relay, she became the first woman to dip under the 58-second barrier in what was then a mind-boggling time of 57.57.

Since then, sub-58 swims have become almost commonplace for Smith and her biggest international rival, Kaylee McKeown of Australia who now holds the trifecta of backstroke world records. The only other swimmer to log a 57-point swim in the 100 back is Olympic silver medalist Kylie Masse.

Smith has logged three 57-point swims already this season, culminating with a new American record at the NOVA Speedo Grand Challenge, her first personal best in the event since 2019.

Now well into her second season with legendary coach Bob Bowman, Smith has not only shown improvement in her times, but her race strategy as well. Check out the split comparison below; she showed a lot more restraint on the front-half of her race compared to her swim five years ago.

Split Comparison:

New Record (2024) Old Record (2019)
50 28.11 27.74
100 29.40 29.83
57.51 57.57

Smith was already the heavy favorite to qualify for her second Olympic team in this event, but this result less than a month out from Trials only separates her more from the field.

Presuming Smith has more to give, it also begs the question of if she can challenge for the Olympic title. Of course, she’ll have to get through the aforementioned McKeown, who seems to have the uncanny ability to drop world record swims no matter the circumstance.

Curzan Leads Wolfpack Duo After Worlds Sweep

Claire Curzan made her first Olympic team in the 100 butterfly three years ago, but has since emerged as a triple-distance threat in backstroke as well. At the 2024 World Championships in Doha, she became the second woman behind Kaylee McKeown to complete the backstroke sweep, winning the 50-100-200 with best times in all three.

Her time from Doha is ranked #2 this season. Curzan is facing extremely crowded fields in her best events, but she looks to have more momentum in backstroke in the lead-up to Trials.

Another competitor to keep an eye on is Katharine Berkoff, who took home her third NCAA title in the yards version of the event this March. She was already the #2 performer of all-time, but continued to stake her claim as one of only two women to ever break 49 seconds behind NCAA and American record holder Gretchen Walsh. 

While Walsh doesn’t focus on this event in long course, Berkoff has successfully carried her momentum from yards to meters for the past two seasons. In 2022, she earned a silver medal in the 50 back at Worlds. The next season at 2023 U.S. Nationals, she became the #3 U.S. performer of all time and booked another ticket to Worlds (58.01). She ultimately finished 3rd in the event, behind McKeown and Smith.

She hasn’t been quite as fast this season, clocking in at #3 with a 58.61 from the U.S. Open, but based on her previous performances she has the potential to make her first Olympic team.

Finally, we can’t count out Rhyan White, who claimed the second spot in this event behind Smith in Tokyo. After wrapping up her NCAA career with Alabama in 2023, she moved her training base to the NC State pro group, where Berkoff is also based. White hasn’t logged a sub-59 swim since the summer of 2022, but recently popped a 59.20 at the San Antonio PSS to sit at #4 this season.

NC State has a strong presence in this event; including Berkoff and White, there are five present and future Wolfpack members ranked in the top 16 this season.

2023-24 U.S. Rankings, Women’s 100 Backstroke (LCM)

  1. Regan Smith, 57.51 – 2024 NOVA Speedo Grand Challenge
  2. Claire Curzan, 58.29 – 2024 World Championships
  3. Katharine Berkoff, 58.61 – 2023 U.S. Open
  4. Rhyan White, 59.20 – 2024 PSS – San Antonio
  5. Isabelle Stadden, 59.22 – 2024 NOVA Speedo Grand Challenge
  6. Olivia Smoliga, 59.25 – 2023 U.S. Open
  7. Kennedy Noble, 59.45 – 2024 Phoenix May Cray
  8. Teagan O’Dell, 59.51 – 2023 World Junior Championships
  9. Leah Shackley, 59.57 – 2024 Charlotte Open
  10. Josephine Fuller, 59.67 – 2023 Pan American Games

College Competitors Jostling for Position

When Katharine Berkoff took home the NCAA title earlier this year, she led the field by nearly two seconds. The next four competitors finished less than two-tenths apart and will also look to translate their yards success into meters later this month.

Of the five, Phoebe Bacon is the only one with Olympic experience. She qualified for Tokyo in the 200 back, where she ultimately finished 5th. Her best time in the 100 comes from all the way back in 2019, when she bested then-world record holder Regan Smith at the U.S. Open.

Bacon only has one other 58-point swim to her name, also from pre-pandemic times in 2020, but based on her previous Trials experience she seems likely to make the final.

Isabelle Stadden finished 2nd at NCAAs. She’s been a mainstay in the backstroke events throughout her career with Cal, and recently announced she would be taking her Covid fifth-year with the Bears. 

At Wave 2 Olympic Trials in 2021, Stadden made it to the championship final in both the 100 and 200 backstroke. She set a PB in the shorter event in semifinals (58.99) and went on to finish 5th overall, just ahead of Bacon. She looks on track to make another finals appearance this year, as her time from the NOVA Grand Challenge sits at #5 this season.

Kennedy Noble is also riding some momentum from the NCAA season. The NC State sophomore made her first A final appearance in the 100 back, after finishing 5th in the 200 in her freshman campaign.

Since competing at Trials in 2021, she’s dropped her 100 back time by just over two seconds from 1:01.12 to 59.11. This season, she ranks #7 with a 59.45 from earlier in May. Noble could make it a season of firsts and vie for her first Trials final.

Josephine Fuller started out her season with a best time en route to Pan American gold in the 100 back (59.67) and capped off her NCAA campaign with another best time in the yards version of the event. She slots in at #10 this season with her time from Pan Ams.

Teenage Talent Looking to Rise

In total, 13 American women have been under the Olympic A-cut of 59.99 this season, another testament to the depth of domestic talent in this event. Of those thirteen, four are still in high school (or are freshly graduated).

The youngest of that group is Teagan O’Dell, who represented the U.S. at the 2023 World Junior Championships. She set her best time at that meet, blazing 59.51 on the mixed medley leadoff that ultimately won gold. O’Dell is arguably better in the 200 back, where she’s the World Jr. champion, but should be in the mix in the shorter distance as well. O’Dell is set to join Cal starting in the fall of 2025.

Next up are two athletes who will join the Wolfpack in the fall: Erika Pelaez and Leah Shackley.

Erika Pelaez also clocked an OQT at World Juniors, where she earned a bronze medal with a PB of 59.94. Pelaez recently improved her best time in the 100 free at the 18 & Under Spring Cup – Fort Lauderdale, as well as sweeping the rest of her events. If she can find a similar drop in the 100 back, she could be in the mix to challenge for a finals spot as her current time places her at #13 this season.

Leah Shackley has the #9 time this season with a 59.57, just two-hundredths off her PB from 2023. She was also present at World Juniors, picking up a gold medal in the 50 fly and a silver in the 100 fly.

Finally, Maggie Wanezek, who is headed to Wisconsin in the fall, slots in at #12 this season thanks to a 59.90 from 2024 NCSAs in March. She also clocked a 200 back PB at that meet, and has good momentum to make a semi, or the final, in the shorter distance later this month.

Smoliga Hunting for Third Olympic Berth

Olivia Smoliga is the only swimmer in the field who has represented the U.S. at the last two Olympics. She made her Olympic debut in 2016, competing in the 100 backstroke, and in 2021 finished 3rd in the 100 free to earn a spot on the 4×100 free relay.

Her best time of 58.31 puts her right in the mix for the second spot, but she’s only been as fast as 59.25 this season at the 2023 U.S. Open.

However, Smoliga seems to have gone all-in on the 100 free, where there are likely six spots up for qualification. She hasn’t swum the 100 back since the U.S. Open.

The Verdict

It’s hard to bet against Regan Smith taking the top spot here, as she’s been exactly 0.5-seconds faster than Berkoff’s best time.

Speaking of Berkoff, we’re giving her the edge here over Curzan. Her international breakout in 2022 came on the heels of a stellar NCAA season, and she’s only gotten better since then. (I’ll also throw in a soft prediction that she dips in the 57-second territory at some point between semis and finals, becoming the second American woman to do so.)

The remainder of the field looks to be dependent on who has the hot hand. Any number of these swimmers could be on the outside looking in when it comes to securing a lane for finals. All in all, it’s shaping up to be an exciting race you won’t want to miss.

SWIMSWAM PICKS

PLACE SWIMMER SEASON BEST LIFETIME BEST
1 Regan Smith 57.51 57.51
2 Katharine Berkoff 58.61 58.01
3 Claire Curzan 58.29 58.29
4 Isabelle Stadden 59.22 58.99
5 Rhyan White 59.20 58.43
6 Kennedy Noble 59.45 59.11
7 Erika Pelaez 59.94 59.94
8 Phoebe Bacon 59.76 58.63

Dark Horse: Rylee Erisman – Before this year, Erisman had never swum under 1:02 in this event. She threw down a 1:00.58 at the NCSA Spring Championships, and then two months later became the fastest 15-year-old American ever in the 100 free. She is ranked #16 this season in the 100 back, and seems to have everything pointing in her favor to be right in the mix come Trials.

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